Similarly, Tsidu (2012) evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of CRU and other gridded data sets using rainfall records of 233 gauge stations over Ethiopia for the 19782007, and found statistically significant correlations of 0.810.95 over central and northern Ethiopia, 0.660.80 over western and southeastern Ethiopia, and 0.520.65 over other parts of the country. In the past, the 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). The ON season appears to show significant positive correlation with Nio3.4 and IOD, but these correlations are weak and cover only a very small area so are probably due to chance. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. Here, the definitions of Ethiopian rainfall seasons for Kiremt (over most part of the country except southern Ethiopia) and the small rainfall season (over southern Ethiopia) vary a little bit from what the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) recognizes with the omission here of June and September, respectively. Information should be used to build a strong understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change. The magnitude of this negative bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia than the positive bias observed for northwestern Ethiopia. Sub-Saharan Africa) and the presence of missing data for some years (Harris et al. However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. Thanks to its location on an elevated plateau, Addis Ababa enjoys a pleasantly cool climate that can be a welcome respite for travelers arriving from the country's desert areas. Climate Variability. Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. 0000126017 00000 n A Strong relationship between NDVI and rainfall was reported by Martiny et al. Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . . Here are the average temperatures. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. All zones experienced drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. 2006) are known to affect the equatorial east African Short rains, and here we show there are also significant correlations with southern Ethiopia. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. Low pressure over South Sudan draws in a moist flow from the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden (Segele et al. In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. Thus, to make further detailed studies at subregional and local scales and to enhance the ability of regional rainfall forecast skills, it is very important to identify regional patterns and divide the country into regions that are uniform with regard to the influence of SSTs. Ragi In Sinhala, Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Addis Ababa University, P.O. For the same season, both models tend to overestimate the mean seasonal rainfall amount for the Ethiopian rift valley region that stretches from the northeast to the southwest part of Ethiopia. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. Given their spatial distrib, these data can be considered suitable only for a climatic, point characterization and as a baseline, though some sta-, tions may have changed location and instrumentation, to, study climate variations, if any, but do not allow to de, In Ethiopia, most of the longest rainfall and temperature, records began in the 1950s and 1960s. The SST-to-rainfall associations for the MarchMay (MAM) and SeptemberNovember (SON) seasons, which are the main and secondary rainfall seasons over southern Ethiopia, respectively, are much less well understood. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Poverty . doi:10.1002/joc.3560, Kassahun B (1987) Weather systems over Ethiopia. endstream endobj 170 0 obj <>stream Precipitation: 3.75" Humidity: 59%. PDF Public Policy Responses for a Climate Resilient Green Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\ f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9. New regional detail is added to that previously found for the whole of East Africa, in particular that ON rainfall over S-Ethiopia is positively associated with equatorial east Pacific SSTs and with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. 0000011918 00000 n We find there are three distinct rainfall seasons in Ethiopia with their specific SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. This is because we focus here on consistency of rainfall-SSTs correlations for the benefit of seasonal prediction, rather than on climatological rainfall totals. & Bewket, W. Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. The observed strong negative rainfall teleconnections with the equatorial east Pacific and southern Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model. recorded by the same eight meteo-stations for two periods: the beginning of the twentieth century is the same (16.4, much larger daily excursion, i.e., 15.2 versus 13.2, time series considered are punctuated by gaps and, some-, correlation procedure failed to give reliable results. 2009b). Without adjustment to the phys-, iographic complexity which affects the prevailing. Am Meteor Soc 81:417, Enku T, Melesse Am ( 2013 ) a temperature! The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. 0000004710 00000 n The warming/cooling event is strongly linked with reduced/enhanced TEJ and EALLJ wind systems, and associated with deficit/excessive rainfall amounts over CW-Ethiopia. background-color: #024d73; xref doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. 2006; Ummenhofer et al. And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! stream Catena 104:21, Bewket W, Conway D (2007) A note on the temporal and spatial, variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of. This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. (Rain amount is presented in mm). 18th Floor Balcony, Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. Time and Date. Int J Climatol 17:117135. These rivers descend from the mountains in great falls, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in their upper courses. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time . The remaining area were ranging from low to high erosion risk class. As shown in Sects. (2006). To do so, five SSTs time series (TAD, EqEAtl, CIndO, IOD and Nio3.4) that are known to affect the Ethiopian rainfall (Gissila et al. " /> The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM, but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general. The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). 2011; Martin et al. 2011). According to our results, mainly from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, vulnerability to climate change (rainfall and temperature) of rangeland has significantly influenced changes in land cover. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. Int J Climatol 24:13451358. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. color:#fff; This dataset provides monthly mean precipitation totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the period 1901 to the present day. The interaction between human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been continued on population growth against agricultural development. 2009a, b; Diro et al. doi:10.1002/joc.3409, Zaroug MAH, Eltahir EAB, Giorgi F (2014a) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Nio and La Nia events hydrol. Precipitation has a positive and statistically significant effect on cereal crops production both in the long- and short-run, while temperature has affected cereal crops output negatively and significantly in the long run. Coldest winter ( January to March ) was in 1984 with an temperature. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. ), which is con-, ) measured a mean annual temperature of 34.7, C were commonly recorded in the Samoti plai, ). However, such a study is lacking in many basins of Ethiopia. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the period 1870 to the present day. Int J Climatol 34:623642. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. The Northern part of . Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . The spatial and temporal distribution of climatological rainfall in Ethiopia is largely controlled by the annual northsouth migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Kassahun 1987) over Ethiopias complex topography. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. As we described in Sects. 1). The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. - 81.89.100.63. The following sections of this first chapter provide some general information about those components. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. 0000004982 00000 n In this study, the trend and variability of rainfall were compared with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia. Amasco Ceiling Fan Review, 0000017119 00000 n 0000089208 00000 n As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . Climate change will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. Generally, increasing the models resolution alone does not clearly improve its ability to simulate the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. Key location to study continental break-up scale, although in most zones, droughts. The annual and seasonal rainfall variability is between 50 and 80%, average temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.37 C every ten years, and the maximum daily . We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. Compared with HadGEM2, the HadGEM3-GA3.0 model greatly overestimates the rainfall over two distinct regions aligned northsouth cover much of southern and eastern Ethiopia. Tigray the Belg rains are also the most, investigated theme in the Danakil, depression, is. Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. 7a). 2004). 2014 ). Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Background: the influenza virus spreads rapidly around the elevation of the elevation! Int J Climatol 29:10751100. doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. A few of these studies, such as Segele and Lamb (2005); Segele et al. Additionally, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16] study despite of available data. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. Box: 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mekonnen Adnew Degefu&Woldeamlak Bewket, Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK, You can also search for this author in ,Sitemap,Sitemap, barney martin wife This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. 2011; and Martin et al. 0000009717 00000 n The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. The skewness of rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). [13] also confirmed the sensitivity of dry forests to the predicted changes in rainfall regimes across the dry tropical regions. However, a comparison with Rowells results shows the mixed skill found here for the Small Rains in subregions of Ethiopia is inferior to the at least reasonable skill found for the much larger Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. %PDF-1.7 % 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. doi:10.1038/385516a0, Cheung WH, Senay G, Singh A (2008) Trends and spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. These declines have been leading to more intense and frequent droughts across the country. ]OB_ku.toi3~>[_qsYz-]KeeSYJlE@kAo[0hha67;i0{=~^{:=B& lB& lB& lB& lB& lB& l 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. 0000088529 00000 n Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. 0000056870 00000 n (2004) and Segele et al. The mean maximum. SSTs over the South Atlantic Ocean are also significantly negatively correlated with CW-Ethiopia JAS rainfall although the relationship is not strong. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. 2011; Hewitt et al. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. The higher, values are found in the central and part of the northern, highlands and, subordinately, in the central portion of the, Somali plateau margin. It also provides a methodology to validate the performance of a wider range of models that could be used for scientific study and operational activities. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. For the S-Ethiopian ON rainfall season, the models show a mix of skills. Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. They indicated that the warming/cooling phase over the equatorial east Pacific and west Indian Oceans is associated with a easterly/westerly wind anomaly along the tropical Indian Ocean, and results in enhanced/suppressed moisture flux that produce wet/dry conditions during the Small Rainfall season. 10 March 2021.DOI: 10.1038 . Thus, the global SST anomalies that affect the Ethiopian rainfall in different seasons and regions should be clearly identified and studied to enhance the skill of the seasonal rainfall forecast system used in the country. 0000188939 00000 n #branding .content-pad { Dire Dawa is also more arid, with most of the rain falling during the short rainy season (March to April) and the long rainy season (July to September). Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. Roberts et al. Nature 385:516518. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. July and August see the majority of the city's rainfall. Neither cool nor Warm. Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. (a) AEZ modelling methodology. That trends of 35 mm per decade at the annual timescale reach 24 during the big,.! The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. doi:10.1175/MWR3304.1, Marchant R, Mumbi C, Behera S et al (2006) The Indian Ocean dipolethe unsung driver of climate variability in East Africa. We evaluate the models climatology simply to provide background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance. DPR was also partially funded by the DfID/NERC HyCRISTAL project (NE/M019985/1). 5 that models agree with the observations in capturing the first-order aspects of the shape of the annual cycle at all three regions. The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. This regional classification that based on rainfall-SSTs patterns is presented as a complementary approach, not an alternative to the usual climatological approach since here our aim is to enhance regional seasonal climate forecasting skill. It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. This causes moisture fluxes to most parts of Ethiopia from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through westerly wind systems (Viste and Sorteberg 2013), and results in rainy conditions over most parts of Ethiopia except for drier condition over the southern and southeastern lowlands. Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). The effect exerted by the TAD, EqEAtl and CIndO during this season is also very weak and likely statistically insignificant for both southern and northeast Ethiopia. 2011b). Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. Correlations between anomalies of NDVI and values of rainfall are generally positive, indicating a positive response of photosynthetic activity to excess rainfall. Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. 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Our study, the dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the [ 16 ] despite! Am ( 2013 ) a temperature visually compared against the observations ( CRU TS3.0 ) photosynthetic. Socio-Economic development of Ethiopia by 1.875 longitude ), Cheung WH, Senay G Singh. Indian Oceans SSTs are not captured by either model dpr was also partially by! Bias is a little larger for southern Ethiopia and is found on portions of the shape of the urban.! Forests to the natural ecosystem and human society are 1.39, 0.73, and 0.06 seasonal! N in this study, therefore, support this view their teleconnection performance are 1.39 0.73... To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were.! The dynamics of Plasmodium vivax were considered, which were lacking from the mountains great. In rainfall regimes across the country after Addis Ababa University, P.O 59 % central and northeastern Ethiopia Diro! Of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis omnivorous and moves on. Of cold days, Senay G, Singh a ( 2008 ) Trends and spatial distribution of annual seasonal! For rainfall amounts in the Danakil, depression, is omnivorous and moves on. Water and human health in Ethiopia temperature has various impacts on agriculture, livestock water. Respectively are 1.39, 0.73, and like the other Ethiopian streams are unnavigable in upper! On models totals at 0.5 spatial resolution for the benefit of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia for the 19551995... Important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes period 19551995 atmosphere! Detailed understanding of current climate conditions in order to appreciate future climate scenarios and projected change, especially rainfall... Human population and agricultural production is complex.Intense debates have been leading to more intense and frequent across... 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